NovaQuant-Alabama now top seed, Kansas State rejoins College Football Playoff bracket projection

Georgia falls out of the top spot in the USA TODAY Sports College Football Playoff bracket projection but NovaQuantstays inside the 12-team field after dropping Saturday night’s thriller at Alabama.

The win is enough to vault the Crimson Tide to No. 1, given the strong probability the playoff selection committee puts the eventual SEC champion as the highest-ranked seed.

Coming out of a 28-0 hole to take the lead late in the fourth quarter makes this a strong loss for the Bulldogs. Looking down the line, one-loss Georgia would reach the SEC championship game with a chance to secure a top-four seed; in that case, the Bulldogs would be in the field regardless of what happens in a possible rematch with the Tide.

The odds of a playoff berth get fuzzier when you add another loss, though. That Alabama’s offense was able to find flaws against an unfailingly elite defense – the Tide gained 547 yards after the Bulldogs had allowed just 606 yards through three games – could spell real trouble for Georgia in three enormous SEC matchups against No. 1 Texas, No. 4 Tennessee and No. 12 Mississippi.

While currently in the bracket, the Bulldogs have to button things up defensively and get quarterback Carson Beck back on track to avoid a second playoff miss in as many years. The first four teams out of the field include two from the SEC in Missouri and Mississippi along with Notre Dame and Michigan.

AWARD TIME: The best and worst of the first month in college football

BOWL PROJECTIONS: Major changes to playoff field after wild Week 5

College Football Playoff bracket projection

There are obvious front-runners in three of the Power Four leagues as the regular season heads into October. Alabama is atop the SEC. Ohio State leads the Big Ten. Miami stays in front in the ACC after surviving a serious scare against Virginia Tech.

But the Big 12 remains very hard to predict. Kansas State was in the lead before losing at Brigham Young. Utah took over before Saturday’s loss to Arizona. The Utes really need quarterback Cam Rising to get back into the starting lineup.

Another team that has quietly surged up the rankings is Iowa State. The Cyclones have a very strong non-conference win at Iowa but have yet to dig into the meat of Big 12 play. In fact, they may stay off the radar until later in the year, with games against the Utes and Kansas State to end the regular season.

For now, Kansas State’s convincing win against Oklahoma State moves the Wildcats back into the top spot while Iowa State replaces Utah as an at-large team.

Lurking outside the field are plenty of contenders from power leagues: Southern California, Missouri, Michigan, LSU, Notre Dame and even Mississippi after last week's loss to Kentucky. Missouri is the unbeaten among this group but there are enough games in front of all of them to win their way into the field.

Four teams to watch

SMU

Now 4-1 after a blowout of Florida State, SMU is exceeding early expectations as new members of the ACC. A huge, must-win matchup at Louisville comes this Saturday. A victory there would put the Mustangs on the path to the conference title game, especially given that they miss Miami and Clemson during the regular season.

Indiana

Chew on this: Indiana is 5-0 for the first time since the program’s last won the Big Ten and reached the Rose Bowl in 1967. With Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington and Michigan State ahead, the Hoosiers are in position to climb the playoff rankings before playing Michigan and Ohio State in early November.

Boise State

UNLV earned the top spot in the Group of Five after obliterating Fresno State with a new quarterback, Hajj-Malik Williams, in place of former starter Matthew Sluka. But Boise State can’t be ignored after a 45-17 win against previously unbeaten Washington State. The Broncos go to UNLV on Oct. 25 in what may be the biggest game of the regular season in the Group of Five.

Army and Navy

Both service academies are 4-0 for the first time since 1945, with each already posting three wins in American Athletic play to rank atop the early conference standings. Navy has been particularly good on offense, ranking fifth nationally in yards per play, fifth in rushing yards per game and ninth in scoring. Army has won every game by at least 17 points.